Ahmadinnejad's Hidden Struggle to Fill Government Posts

Rooz Online:

Thursday, Sep 1, 2005

Hamid Ahadi

Tehran's political observers who have been watching recent developments in the distribution of key executive posts in the new government have warned of a new struggle between the traditional right wing conservatives and the neo-conservative team that is a close ally of Iran's hardline president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. This new battle between groups that were allies for a long time is expected to bring about drastic political and social changes and challenges whenever any of these factions takes the upper hand.

Analysts believe that while the ministries of the Interior, Foreign Affairs, Intelligence, and Economy, as well as the Supreme National Security Council, which are in charge of foreign and security issues, have been relegated to individuals who have relative experience in their fields and thus will bring about little change, other battle grounds remain. Specifically, heads of the Oil, State Planning, and the Central Bank remain to be nominated and this is where Ahmadinejad and his supporters are refraining from any compromise, insisting on their choices.

There are other signs of serious concerns over changes in key government posts that both traditionalists and neoconservatives have. An informed member of the reform faction revealed that Mostafa Pourmohammadi managed to get a majority vote in Majlis last week only because the minority faction had decided to cast their 40 votes for him. Without that, the Minister of the Interior too would have been rejected, as were four other nominees. That vote indicated the seriousness of the divide even among the neo-cons and the traditionalists.

There is now a rumor that president Ahmadinejad insists on appointing the two rejected ministerial nominees to lower, but as important, posts of Vice President in Cultural Affairs and the Governor of the Central Bank. Both appointments bear consequences beyond the bureaucratic wrangling. Having worked with the Ministry of Culture, Ashari is not expected to be in harmony with the new Minister of Culture. Saeedlou tipped to be the next Central Bank Governor, on the other hand, who is very close to Ahmadinejad will find it hard to get along with Danesh Jafari, the newly appointed Minister of Finance.

Political analysts interpret these divisions and Majlis’ last week’s rejection of the four nominees, as only the tip of an iceberg in the divisions within conservatist and hardline groups. A comprehensive survey conducted by the Planning organization at the end of Khatami's second term indicated that allocating more budget to the new Ministries of Jihad Construction, Energy, Welfare, Mines and Industries, Communications etc (Ministers that were approved by the Majlis last week) are the only public departments that the new government will have a chance to be successful in. However, by over spending the oil income, these Ministries will also become extremely dependant on petro-dollars and short-lived economic satisfaction among Iranians.

Critical challenges such in domestic production and problems concerning foreign investment will be an eye opener to Ahmadinejad’s mangers, when they realize that they can only continue the policies of the past 17 years.