New president handed a nuclear confrontation

Asia Times:

August 1, 2005

By Safa Haeri

PARIS - Incoming Iranian president Mahmud Ahmadinejad, who takes office August 3, has been given a hand-made and potentially explosive crisis by outgoing President Mohammad Khatami.

Iran announced at the weekend that it would end its indefinite suspension of uranium enrichment, nuclear fuel reprocessing and related activities as Tehran had not received compromise proposals as promised by the European Three ( EU-3 - Germany, Britain and France) who are negotiating with Iran.

The EU immediately branded the move "unnecessary and damaging" and one which could derail their talks.

Iranian analysts interpret the move as an indication of the pressures that the conservatives will put on Ahmadinejad for the full resumption of nuclear activities, at the price of stopping talks with the EU-3 and even getting out of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to which Iran is a signatory.

Iran said that it would start activities at the Uranium Conversion Facility (UCF) in the central city of Esfahan "before the end of the mandate of outgoing President Mohammad Khatami".

Iran said it had informed the EU-3 about its decision to resume activities at the UCF - suspended since last November under an accord reached in Paris with the troika - during a meeting late last week in Tehran between the ambassadors of the Big 3 and Hussein Moussavian, one of Iran's senior nuclear negotiators.

"Since the Big 3 has failed to honor its Paris engagements, the Islamic republic has decided to resume activities at Esfahan's UCF as from this week and before the end of the mandate of the present government," the influential Fars news agency reported.

Quoting an "informed source", Fars, which is close to the leadership, added that Iran had informed the Vienna-based United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) about its intentions and a member of the negotiating team was already on his way to hand the letter to the IAEA.

Indications of Iran's position came earlier when Khatami, probably under pressure from hardliners, raised the question of the resumption of UCF activities "in the very near future", explaining that this process "had nothing to do with enriching uranium".

Ali Larijani, a close adviser to the president-elect and the personal representative of the incoming leader at the Supreme Council on National Security (SCNS), had urged Khatami to resume all nuclear activities, including enriching uranium - the most important step in producing nuclear energy for both civilian and military uses - before the end of his mandate.

Larijani is tipped to take over from Hasan Rohani as secretary of the SCNS and head of Iran's nuclear negotiating team once Ahmadinejad takes over.

European diplomats say that the reason the EU-3 has delayed presenting its package of economic and political incentives for Tehran to consider in return for Iran's indefinite suspension of nuclear fuel activities is that the EU-3 wants to deal with Ahmadinejad and his new team.

They describe Ahmadinejad as a "fundamentalist" fully in chemistry with Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic republic who has the last word on all major matters, including the nuclear issue.

They want to deal with the real holders of power - instead of with a government that is in its final hours, and, more important for them, to see whether there will be any change in the negotiating team, a process that could take several weeks.

Rohani has been an important factor in negotiations with the EU-3 and in bringing the parties as far as they have. This in the face of stiff United States pressure generated by a desire by many in the Bush administration to have Iran's case taken to the United Nations Security Council. Washington is skeptical that Iran's nuclear program is solely for peaceful purposes.

Iran might not be too concerned by such a development as should the council propose sanctions against Tehran, Russia, a veto-wielding member, would most likely oppose this. Iran has one nuclear-powered electricity plant near completion with Russian help and technology on the Persian Gulf at Bushehr.

It originally planned the construction of five others, but under pressure from the conservatives-controlled majlis, or parliament, Khatami's government said it was now looking to build 19 others, and it invited the Europeans and even the Americans to enter the multibillion dollar project.

In a long report to Khatami, Rohani indirectly implies that negotiations with the EU-3 should be continued, even at the price of extending the suspension of uranium-enriching, a process that the EU-3 wants to become permanent.

In his report, Rohani reveals that the EU-3 has pledged to support Iran's nuclear projects for peaceful uses; provide nuclear power plants and "sustained, long-term" fuel guaranteed by the IAEA, and also the "gradual lifting of obstacles" preventing Iran from getting advanced technologies.

The package also includes "all necessary measures concerning the respect of Iranian territorial integrity, independence and sovereignty of Iran and non-aggression against it"; strengthening cooperation in the political and security fields in both the international and regional arenas, including the fight against terrorism and drug smuggling, as well as fostering Iran-EU relations, which includes signing a trade and cooperation agreement and recognizing Iran as a principal source of energy for Europe.

However, the hardline newspaper Keyhan, a mouthpiece for Khamenei, has dismissed the EU-3's efforts: "The European negotiators are after one goal, which is depriving the Islamic republic from its most natural right, that of nuclear technologies." This contrasting view to Rohani's shows the gulf within Iran that Ahmadinejad will have to bridge.

Safa Haeri is a Paris-based Iranian journalist covering the Middle East and Central Asia.